Crotone vs Barletta

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Crotone

Barletta

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.2% DRAW 29.6% AWAY 26.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.9% 2.10 DRAW 29.2% 3.30 AWAY 24.8% 3.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Barletta has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Crotone Barletta

Shots 14.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 16.5 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Barletta, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Crotone Barletta

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Crotone Barletta

The combined recent performance profile favours Barletta.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Crotone ↓ -0.21 (-9.1%)

Barletta ↑ +0.91 (+30.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.