Bari vs Casarano

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Bari

Casarano

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.1% DRAW 28.5% AWAY 25.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.6% 1.96 DRAW 28.2% 3.30 AWAY 24.2% 3.85

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Casarano

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bari Casarano

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 13.3 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Casarano, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bari Casarano

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bari Casarano

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bari ↑ +0.21 (+12.0%)

Casarano ↓ -0.59 (-13.3%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.