Livorno vs FC Vado

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Livorno

FC Vado

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.8% DRAW 26.7% AWAY 17.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 55.0% 1.71 DRAW 26.9% 3.49 AWAY 18.1% 5.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Livorno FC Vado

Shots 8.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Livorno FC Vado

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 5.0

Livorno has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Livorno FC Vado

The combined recent performance profile favours Livorno.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Livorno ↓ -0.02 (-1.2%)

FC Vado ↑ +0.35 (+7.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.