US Pianese vs Sambenedettese

21 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.9 pp

US Pianese

Sambenedettese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 46.3% DRAW 30.5% AWAY 23.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.3% 2.38 DRAW 31.0% 3.10 AWAY 28.7% 3.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates US Pianese clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 46.3% win probability, compared with 40.3% implied by the market. The 5.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

US Pianese has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

US Pianese Sambenedettese

Shots 14.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours US Pianese, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

US Pianese Sambenedettese

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 8.0

US Pianese has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

US Pianese Sambenedettese

The combined recent performance profile favours US Pianese.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

US Pianese ↑ +0.04 (+1.7%)

Sambenedettese ↑ +0.47 (+16.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.