Spezia vs Vis Pesaro

21 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.6 pp

Spezia

Vis Pesaro

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 83.1% DRAW 12.0% AWAY 4.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 79.5% 1.20 DRAW 14.1% 6.75 AWAY 6.4% 15.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Spezia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 83.1% win probability, compared with 79.5% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Spezia has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spezia Vis Pesaro

Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Spezia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spezia Vis Pesaro

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Spezia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spezia Vis Pesaro

The combined recent performance profile favours Spezia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Spezia ↓ -0.09 (-6.6%)

Vis Pesaro ↑ +1.70 (+13.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.