Perugia vs Spezia

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Perugia

Spezia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.3% DRAW 31.5% AWAY 36.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.3% 2.76 DRAW 31.1% 3.04 AWAY 34.6% 2.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Spezia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Perugia Spezia

Shots 11.0 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Perugia Spezia

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 1.5

Spezia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Perugia Spezia

The combined recent performance profile favours Spezia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Perugia ↑ +0.16 (+6.2%)

Spezia ↑ +0.10 (+3.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.