Spezia vs Livorno

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Spezia

Livorno

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.5% DRAW 25.7% AWAY 15.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.7% 1.66 DRAW 26.2% 3.58 AWAY 17.1% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Spezia

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Spezia Livorno

Shots 11.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Spezia Livorno

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 4.3

Spezia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Spezia Livorno

The combined recent performance profile favours Spezia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Spezia ↓ -0.14 (-7.9%)

Livorno ↑ +1.70 (+44.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.