Sambenedettese vs Campobasso

26 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +4.0 pp

Sambenedettese

Campobasso

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.9% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 40.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% 2.86 DRAW 30.7% 3.06 AWAY 36.4% 2.58

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Campobasso relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.4% win probability, compared with 36.4% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Campobasso has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sambenedettese Campobasso

Shots 7.0 · On target 3.0 Shots 12.0 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output favours Campobasso, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sambenedettese Campobasso

Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Campobasso has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sambenedettese Campobasso

The combined recent performance profile favours Campobasso.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Sambenedettese ↑ +0.26 (+10.0%)

Campobasso ↑ +0.08 (+3.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.