Vis Pesaro vs AC Reggiana

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

Vis Pesaro

AC Reggiana

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.1% DRAW 25.1% AWAY 54.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 22.1% 4.26 DRAW 25.9% 3.63 AWAY 52.0% 1.81

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for AC Reggiana relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.7% win probability, compared with 52.0% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

AC Reggiana has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Vis Pesaro AC Reggiana

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Vis Pesaro AC Reggiana

Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.3

AC Reggiana has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Vis Pesaro AC Reggiana

The combined recent performance profile favours AC Reggiana.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Vis Pesaro ↑ +0.75 (+21.4%)

AC Reggiana ↓ -0.10 (-5.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.