ASD Pineto Calcio vs Sambenedettese

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.6 pp

ASD Pineto Calcio

Sambenedettese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.6% DRAW 31.6% AWAY 24.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.0% 2.41 DRAW 31.6% 2.97 AWAY 29.4% 3.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates ASD Pineto Calcio clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.6% win probability, compared with 39.0% implied by the market. The 4.6 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: ASD Pineto Calcio

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

ASD Pineto Calcio Sambenedettese

Shots 9.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ASD Pineto Calcio Sambenedettese

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 7.3

ASD Pineto Calcio has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ASD Pineto Calcio Sambenedettese

The combined recent performance profile favours ASD Pineto Calcio.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

ASD Pineto Calcio ↑ +0.26 (+12.1%)

Sambenedettese ↑ +0.20 (+6.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.