Qalali vs Umm Al Hassam

14 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

Qalali

Umm Al Hassam

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 6.3% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 77.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 7.7% 12.38 DRAW 17.3% 5.50 AWAY 75.0% 1.27

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Umm Al Hassam relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 77.9% win probability, compared with 75.0% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Umm Al Hassam has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Qalali Umm Al Hassam

Shots 3.8 · On target 2.0 Shots 7.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Umm Al Hassam, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Qalali Umm Al Hassam

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 9.3 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8

Umm Al Hassam has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Qalali Umm Al Hassam

The combined recent performance profile favours Umm Al Hassam.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Qalali ↑ +4.88 (+65.1%)

Umm Al Hassam ↓ -0.03 (-2.3%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.