CSM Satu Mare vs CS Afumati

19 Sep 2026 · 10:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.7 pp

CSM Satu Mare

CS Afumati

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.1% DRAW 26.5% AWAY 47.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 28.3% 3.40 DRAW 27.1% 3.55 AWAY 44.7% 2.15

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CS Afumati relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 47.4% win probability, compared with 44.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CS Afumati has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CSM Satu Mare CS Afumati

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours CS Afumati, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CSM Satu Mare CS Afumati

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CSM Satu Mare CS Afumati

The combined recent performance profile favours CS Afumati.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

CSM Satu Mare ↓ -0.60 (-15.0%)

CS Afumati ↑ +0.41 (+23.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.