Canada vs Chile

27 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

STRONG EDGE HOME +6.7 pp

Canada

Chile

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 65.1% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 12.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.4% 1.68 DRAW 24.5% 4.00 AWAY 17.1% 5.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Canada substantially higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 65.1% win probability, compared with 58.4% implied by the market. The 6.7 percentage-point difference indicates a strong divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Canada has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Canada Chile

Shots 17.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 7.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Canada, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Canada Chile

Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 7.0

Canada has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Canada Chile

The combined recent performance profile favours Canada.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Canada ↓ -0.03 (-1.5%)

Chile ↑ +0.22 (+4.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.