Al Gharafa vs Lusail

11 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Al Gharafa

Lusail

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 53.9% DRAW 22.5% AWAY 23.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 50.7% 1.89 DRAW 23.7% 4.04 AWAY 25.6% 3.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Al Gharafa relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 53.9% win probability, compared with 50.7% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Al Gharafa

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Gharafa Lusail

Shots 16.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 6.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Al Gharafa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Gharafa Lusail

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 5.8

Lusail has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Gharafa Lusail

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Gharafa.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Al Gharafa ↑ +0.36 (+23.4%)

Lusail ↓ -1.05 (-21.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.