Santa Cruz RJ vs Buzios

13 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.3 pp

Santa Cruz RJ

Buzios

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.1% DRAW 19.4% AWAY 17.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 68.2% 1.36 DRAW 18.6% 5.00 AWAY 13.2% 7.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Buzios clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 17.5% win probability, compared with 13.2% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Buzios has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Santa Cruz RJ Buzios

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.0 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Buzios, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Santa Cruz RJ Buzios

Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Buzios has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Santa Cruz RJ Buzios

The combined recent performance profile favours Buzios.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Santa Cruz RJ ↑ +0.17 (+14.5%)

Buzios ↓ -1.98 (-22.0%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.