Friburguense vs Barra Mansa

06 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Friburguense

Barra Mansa

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.6% DRAW 22.1% AWAY 11.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 64.3% 1.51 DRAW 23.1% 4.20 AWAY 12.6% 7.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Barra Mansa

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Friburguense Barra Mansa

Shots 4.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output favours Barra Mansa, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Friburguense Barra Mansa

Shots allowed 1.3 · On target allowed 0.0 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.3

Friburguense has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Friburguense Barra Mansa

The combined recent performance profile favours Friburguense.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Friburguense ↑ +0.14 (+10.6%)

Barra Mansa ↑ +1.46 (+23.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.