Anderlecht vs KV Kortrijk

03 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Anderlecht

KV Kortrijk

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 70.4% DRAW 17.4% AWAY 12.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 66.9% 1.46 DRAW 19.1% 5.11 AWAY 14.0% 7.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Anderlecht relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 70.4% win probability, compared with 66.9% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Anderlecht has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Anderlecht KV Kortrijk

Shots 13.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Anderlecht, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Anderlecht KV Kortrijk

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.5

Anderlecht has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Anderlecht KV Kortrijk

The combined recent performance profile favours Anderlecht.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Anderlecht ↓ -0.17 (-10.5%)

KV Kortrijk ↑ +1.43 (+25.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.