FK Gabala vs Neftchi Baku

18 Sep 2026 · 15:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.3 pp

FK Gabala

Neftchi Baku

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 13.7% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 63.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 14.5% 6.38 DRAW 23.7% 3.91 AWAY 61.8% 1.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Neftchi Baku

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

FK Gabala Neftchi Baku

Shots 11.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 16.5 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Neftchi Baku, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

FK Gabala Neftchi Baku

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

FK Gabala Neftchi Baku

The combined recent performance profile favours Neftchi Baku.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

FK Gabala ↓ -0.62 (-8.9%)

Neftchi Baku ↑ +0.06 (+4.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.