Imisli vs Neftchi Baku

11 Sep 2026 · 14:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.2 pp

Imisli

Neftchi Baku

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 12.0% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 67.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 13.9% 6.73 DRAW 22.3% 4.20 AWAY 63.8% 1.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Neftchi Baku relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.0% win probability, compared with 63.8% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Neftchi Baku

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Imisli Neftchi Baku

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 16.0 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output favours Neftchi Baku, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Imisli Neftchi Baku

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Imisli Neftchi Baku

The combined recent performance profile favours Neftchi Baku.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Imisli ↑ +0.52 (+8.4%)

Neftchi Baku ↓ -0.20 (-12.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.