Newcastle (W) vs Sheff Utd (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Newcastle (W)

Sheff Utd (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 76.4% DRAW 15.8% AWAY 7.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.4% 1.25 DRAW 17.1% 5.45 AWAY 8.5% 10.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Newcastle (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Newcastle (W) Sheff Utd (W)

Shots 7.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Newcastle (W) Sheff Utd (W)

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 7.5

Newcastle (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Newcastle (W) Sheff Utd (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Newcastle (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Newcastle (W) ↓ -0.05 (-3.6%)

Sheff Utd (W) ↑ +3.15 (+40.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.