Sunderland (W) vs Southampton (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.2 pp

Sunderland (W)

Southampton (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.0% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 33.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.8% 2.08 DRAW 25.3% 3.68 AWAY 29.9% 3.12

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Southampton (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.1% win probability, compared with 29.9% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Southampton (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sunderland (W) Southampton (W)

Shots 8.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 13.3 · On target 6.8

Recent attacking output favours Southampton (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sunderland (W) Southampton (W)

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 3.3

Southampton (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sunderland (W) Southampton (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Southampton (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sunderland (W) ↓ -0.42 (-16.8%)

Southampton (W) ↑ +0.57 (+22.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.