Leicester (W) vs Durham (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Leicester (W)

Durham (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 77.1% DRAW 15.6% AWAY 7.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 76.1% 1.24 DRAW 16.4% 5.75 AWAY 7.5% 12.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Leicester (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Leicester (W) Durham (W)

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 8.0 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Leicester (W) Durham (W)

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 5.3

Leicester (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Leicester (W) Durham (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Leicester (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Leicester (W) ↓ -0.24 (-16.3%)

Durham (W) ↑ +7.11 (+131.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.