Boyaca Chico vs Alianza

16 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Boyaca Chico

Alianza

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 54.9% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 17.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 51.4% 1.87 DRAW 28.3% 3.40 AWAY 20.3% 4.75

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Boyaca Chico relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 54.9% win probability, compared with 51.4% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Boyaca Chico

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Boyaca Chico Alianza

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.5 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Boyaca Chico Alianza

Shots allowed 10.3 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 18.5 · On target allowed 7.8

Boyaca Chico has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Boyaca Chico Alianza

The combined recent performance profile favours Boyaca Chico.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Boyaca Chico ↓ -0.61 (-23.9%)

Alianza ↑ +1.63 (+60.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.