Atletico Astorga vs Portugalete

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Atletico Astorga

Portugalete

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.1% DRAW 30.6% AWAY 37.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.8% 2.64 DRAW 30.5% 3.10 AWAY 33.7% 2.80

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Portugalete relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.3% win probability, compared with 33.7% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Portugalete has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Astorga Portugalete

Shots 9.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 7.3

Recent attacking output favours Portugalete, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Astorga Portugalete

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.0

Portugalete has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Astorga Portugalete

The combined recent performance profile favours Portugalete.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Atletico Astorga ↑ +0.23 (+9.5%)

Portugalete ↑ +0.05 (+1.8%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.