Real Tomayapo vs Bolivar

14 Sep 2026 · 02:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.3 pp

Real Tomayapo

Bolivar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.9% DRAW 20.1% AWAY 64.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.3% 5.11 DRAW 22.1% 4.24 AWAY 59.6% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Bolivar clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 64.9% win probability, compared with 59.6% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bolivar has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Real Tomayapo Bolivar

Shots 12.3 · On target 3.5 Shots 19.5 · On target 7.5

Recent attacking output favours Bolivar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Real Tomayapo Bolivar

Shots allowed 20.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Bolivar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Real Tomayapo Bolivar

The combined recent performance profile favours Bolivar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Real Tomayapo ↓ -1.69 (-24.9%)

Bolivar ↑ +0.17 (+12.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.