Independiente Petrolero vs Bolivar

06 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Independiente Petrolero

Bolivar

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 18.9% DRAW 21.5% AWAY 59.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 18.1% 5.43 DRAW 21.9% 4.50 AWAY 60.0% 1.64

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Bolivar has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Independiente Petrolero Bolivar

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 15.3 · On target 7.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Independiente Petrolero Bolivar

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Independiente Petrolero Bolivar

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Independiente Petrolero ↑ +1.45 (+36.4%)

Bolivar ↓ -0.05 (-3.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.