Guabira vs Club Aurora

16 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.6 pp

Guabira

Club Aurora

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.8% DRAW 26.2% AWAY 36.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.1% 2.27 DRAW 26.6% 3.51 AWAY 32.4% 2.88

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Club Aurora relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 36.0% win probability, compared with 32.4% implied by the market. The 3.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Club Aurora has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Guabira Club Aurora

Shots 12.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 16.0 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Club Aurora, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Guabira Club Aurora

Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Club Aurora has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Guabira Club Aurora

The combined recent performance profile favours Club Aurora.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Guabira ↑ +0.66 (+41.0%)

Club Aurora ↓ -1.61 (-35.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.