Universitario De Vinto vs Independiente Petrolero

13 Sep 2026 · 23:15

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.9 pp

Universitario De Vinto

Independiente Petrolero

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.4% DRAW 22.4% AWAY 18.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.5% 1.70 DRAW 24.0% 3.86 AWAY 21.5% 4.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Universitario De Vinto clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 59.4% win probability, compared with 54.5% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Universitario De Vinto has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Universitario De Vinto Independiente Petrolero

Shots 19.3 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Universitario De Vinto, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Universitario De Vinto Independiente Petrolero

Shots allowed 14.3 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 19.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Universitario De Vinto has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Universitario De Vinto Independiente Petrolero

The combined recent performance profile favours Universitario De Vinto.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Universitario De Vinto ↓ -0.25 (-12.8%)

Independiente Petrolero ↑ +0.92 (+26.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.