Al Ahly Cairo vs Abo Qir Semad

15 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.9 pp

Al Ahly Cairo

Abo Qir Semad

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 84.0% DRAW 11.8% AWAY 4.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 79.1% 1.21 DRAW 14.7% 6.53 AWAY 6.2% 15.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Al Ahly Cairo clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 84.0% win probability, compared with 79.1% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Al Ahly Cairo has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Al Ahly Cairo Abo Qir Semad

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours Al Ahly Cairo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Al Ahly Cairo Abo Qir Semad

Shots allowed 3.5 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 14.8 · On target allowed 6.5

Al Ahly Cairo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Al Ahly Cairo Abo Qir Semad

The combined recent performance profile favours Al Ahly Cairo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Al Ahly Cairo ↓ -0.08 (-6.2%)

Abo Qir Semad ↑ +7.33 (+91.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.