Talaea El Geish vs Smouha

14 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

Talaea El Geish

Smouha

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.0% DRAW 39.3% AWAY 26.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% 2.79 DRAW 37.6% 2.63 AWAY 26.9% 3.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Smouha

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Talaea El Geish Smouha

Shots 8.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 7.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Talaea El Geish Smouha

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Smouha has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Talaea El Geish Smouha

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Talaea El Geish ↓ -0.26 (-8.5%)

Smouha ↑ +0.19 (+5.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.