CE Casa de Portugal vs AC d'Escaldes

20 Sep 2026 · 17:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

CE Casa de Portugal

AC d'Escaldes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.4% DRAW 24.8% AWAY 44.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 27.2% 3.43 DRAW 24.9% 3.75 AWAY 47.9% 1.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CE Casa de Portugal relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 30.4% win probability, compared with 27.2% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

CE Casa de Portugal has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

CE Casa de Portugal AC d'Escaldes

Shots 10.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CE Casa de Portugal AC d'Escaldes

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 4.8

CE Casa de Portugal has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CE Casa de Portugal AC d'Escaldes

The combined recent performance profile favours CE Casa de Portugal.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

CE Casa de Portugal ↑ +0.53 (+18.3%)

AC d'Escaldes = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.