Penya Encarnada vs AC d'Escaldes

06 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Penya Encarnada

AC d'Escaldes

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 22.3% DRAW 24.6% AWAY 53.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 19.7% 4.79 DRAW 24.2% 3.90 AWAY 56.1% 1.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Penya Encarnada relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 22.3% win probability, compared with 19.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Penya Encarnada

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Penya Encarnada AC d'Escaldes

Shots 6.8 · On target 1.5 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours AC d'Escaldes, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Penya Encarnada AC d'Escaldes

Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 8.0

Penya Encarnada has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Penya Encarnada AC d'Escaldes

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Penya Encarnada ↓ -0.72 (-13.0%)

AC d'Escaldes ↑ +0.24 (+16.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.