Bolivar vs Independiente Petrolero

11 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Bolivar

Independiente Petrolero

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 84.3% DRAW 10.6% AWAY 5.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 81.7% 1.17 DRAW 12.3% 7.78 AWAY 6.0% 16.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bolivar relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 84.3% win probability, compared with 81.7% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bolivar has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bolivar Independiente Petrolero

Shots 16.3 · On target 6.5 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Bolivar, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bolivar Independiente Petrolero

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Bolivar has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bolivar Independiente Petrolero

The combined recent performance profile favours Bolivar.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Bolivar = (0.0%)

Independiente Petrolero ↑ +1.00 (+6.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.