The Strongest vs Guabira

26 Sep 2026 · 23:15

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.1 pp

The Strongest

Guabira

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 76.1% DRAW 14.0% AWAY 9.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 72.0% 1.30 DRAW 16.1% 5.80 AWAY 11.8% 7.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates The Strongest clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 76.1% win probability, compared with 72.0% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

The Strongest has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

The Strongest Guabira

Shots 18.8 · On target 7.8 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours The Strongest, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

The Strongest Guabira

Shots allowed 17.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 5.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

The Strongest Guabira

The combined recent performance profile favours The Strongest.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

The Strongest ↑ +0.02 (+1.6%)

Guabira ↓ -0.35 (-4.2%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.