Oriente Petrolero vs Guabira

09 Sep 2026 · 02:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.1 pp

Oriente Petrolero

Guabira

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 55.1% DRAW 23.0% AWAY 21.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 52.1% 1.83 DRAW 24.1% 3.95 AWAY 23.8% 4.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Oriente Petrolero relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 55.1% win probability, compared with 52.1% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Oriente Petrolero has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Oriente Petrolero Guabira

Shots 17.3 · On target 6.8 Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Oriente Petrolero Guabira

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Oriente Petrolero has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Oriente Petrolero Guabira

The combined recent performance profile favours Oriente Petrolero.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Oriente Petrolero ↓ -0.14 (-7.1%)

Guabira ↑ +0.90 (+29.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.