Brighton (W) vs Aston Villa (W)

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.8 pp

Brighton (W)

Aston Villa (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 66.8% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 13.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 62.0% 1.57 DRAW 21.6% 4.50 AWAY 16.3% 5.97

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Brighton (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 66.8% win probability, compared with 62.0% implied by the market. The 4.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Brighton (W) has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Brighton (W) Aston Villa (W)

Shots 9.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 7.0 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours Brighton (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Brighton (W) Aston Villa (W)

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 20.0 · On target allowed 7.5

Brighton (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Brighton (W) Aston Villa (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Brighton (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Brighton (W) ↓ -0.19 (-10.9%)

Aston Villa (W) ↑ +2.01 (+50.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.