Aston Villa (W) vs Man City (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 19:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +5.8 pp

Aston Villa (W)

Man City (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 7.7% DRAW 13.7% AWAY 78.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 10.7% 9.05 DRAW 16.4% 5.89 AWAY 72.8% 1.33

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Man City (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 78.7% win probability, compared with 72.8% implied by the market. The 5.8 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Man City (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aston Villa (W) Man City (W)

Shots 6.0 · On target 1.8 Shots 16.0 · On target 8.8

Recent attacking output favours Man City (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aston Villa (W) Man City (W)

Shots allowed 21.8 · On target allowed 8.8 Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Man City (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aston Villa (W) Man City (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Man City (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Aston Villa (W) ↑ +1.33 (+17.2%)

Man City (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.5%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.