Man Utd (W) vs Chelsea (W)

13 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.9 pp

Man Utd (W)

Chelsea (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.2% DRAW 18.3% AWAY 67.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.1% 5.63 DRAW 20.3% 4.75 AWAY 62.6% 1.54

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Chelsea (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 67.4% win probability, compared with 62.6% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Chelsea (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Man Utd (W) Chelsea (W)

Shots 7.0 · On target 2.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Chelsea (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Man Utd (W) Chelsea (W)

Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.3

Chelsea (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Man Utd (W) Chelsea (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Chelsea (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Man Utd (W) ↑ +0.77 (+15.7%)

Chelsea (W) ↓ -0.11 (-6.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.