Trujillanos vs Caracas

06 Sep 2026 · 23:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Trujillanos

Caracas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.1% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 32.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.6% 2.70 DRAW 30.5% 3.06 AWAY 34.9% 2.68

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Trujillanos

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Trujillanos Caracas

Shots 14.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 10.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Trujillanos, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Trujillanos Caracas

Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 2.5

Caracas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Trujillanos Caracas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Trujillanos ↓ -0.05 (-1.8%)

Caracas ↑ +0.31 (+12.8%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.