Carabobo vs Estudiantes Merida

08 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Carabobo

Estudiantes Merida

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.6% DRAW 23.2% AWAY 13.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.3% 1.58 DRAW 24.4% 3.90 AWAY 15.2% 6.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Carabobo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.6% win probability, compared with 60.3% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Carabobo has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Carabobo Estudiantes Merida

Shots 17.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Carabobo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Carabobo Estudiantes Merida

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 4.5

Carabobo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Carabobo Estudiantes Merida

The combined recent performance profile favours Carabobo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Carabobo ↑ +0.02 (+1.1%)

Estudiantes Merida ↑ +0.29 (+5.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.