Estudiantes Merida vs UCV

04 Sep 2026 · 00:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Estudiantes Merida

UCV

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.7% DRAW 30.6% AWAY 35.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.3% 2.52 DRAW 30.3% 3.10 AWAY 32.3% 2.91

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for UCV relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 35.7% win probability, compared with 32.3% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

UCV has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Estudiantes Merida UCV

Shots 10.3 · On target 3.0 Shots 17.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours UCV, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Estudiantes Merida UCV

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 3.5

UCV has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Estudiantes Merida UCV

The combined recent performance profile favours UCV.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Estudiantes Merida ↑ +0.34 (+15.1%)

UCV ↓ -0.16 (-5.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.