AD Parla vs Trival Valderas

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.5 pp

AD Parla

Trival Valderas

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 25.9% DRAW 26.1% AWAY 48.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.4% 3.90 DRAW 26.1% 3.65 AWAY 49.5% 1.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: AD Parla

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

AD Parla Trival Valderas

Shots 9.5 · On target 5.3 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours AD Parla, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AD Parla Trival Valderas

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Trival Valderas has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AD Parla Trival Valderas

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

AD Parla ↓ -0.10 (-2.5%)

Trival Valderas ↑ +0.05 (+2.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.