Atletico Malagueno vs Atletico Porcuna CF

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Atletico Malagueno

Atletico Porcuna CF

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 59.2% DRAW 23.8% AWAY 17.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 57.4% 1.63 DRAW 24.6% 3.81 AWAY 18.1% 5.18

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Malagueno

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Malagueno Atletico Porcuna CF

Shots 11.8 · On target 6.5 Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Malagueno, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Malagueno Atletico Porcuna CF

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.3

Atletico Porcuna CF has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Malagueno Atletico Porcuna CF

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Atletico Malagueno ↓ -0.17 (-9.4%)

Atletico Porcuna CF ↑ +0.90 (+20.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.