UE San Juan Montcada vs UE Tona

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.7 pp

UE San Juan Montcada

UE Tona

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.0% DRAW 30.0% AWAY 28.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% 2.25 DRAW 29.9% 3.10 AWAY 28.8% 3.22

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UE Tona

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UE San Juan Montcada UE Tona

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3 Shots 11.0 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UE San Juan Montcada UE Tona

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UE San Juan Montcada UE Tona

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

UE San Juan Montcada ↓ -0.13 (-5.3%)

UE Tona ↑ +0.52 (+19.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.