Aguilas B vs Bala Azul

20 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.2 pp

Aguilas B

Bala Azul

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.3% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 26.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.1% 2.25 DRAW 29.6% 3.20 AWAY 28.3% 3.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Aguilas B

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Aguilas B Bala Azul

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 3.5 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Aguilas B, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Aguilas B Bala Azul

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 2.0

Bala Azul has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Aguilas B Bala Azul

The combined recent performance profile favours Aguilas B.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Aguilas B ↓ -0.21 (-8.5%)

Bala Azul ↑ +0.55 (+19.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.