UD Los Garres vs Santomera

13 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.7 pp

UD Los Garres

Santomera

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.7% DRAW 25.8% AWAY 36.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.0% 2.80 DRAW 26.1% 3.54 AWAY 40.9% 2.26

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates UD Los Garres clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.7% win probability, compared with 33.0% implied by the market. The 4.7 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UD Los Garres

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

UD Los Garres Santomera

Shots 12.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 4.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours UD Los Garres, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

UD Los Garres Santomera

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

UD Los Garres Santomera

The combined recent performance profile favours UD Los Garres.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

UD Los Garres ↓ -0.75 (-21.1%)

Santomera ↑ +0.20 (+9.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.