USA vs Peru

26 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

USA

Peru

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 67.8% DRAW 20.6% AWAY 11.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 67.5% 1.45 DRAW 20.9% 4.68 AWAY 11.5% 8.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: USA

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

USA Peru

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.3 Shots 8.5 · On target 2.5

Recent attacking output favours USA, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

USA Peru

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

USA Peru

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

USA ↑ +0.17 (+13.4%)

Peru ↓ -0.15 (-1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.