Inter Ibiza vs Mercadal

12 Sep 2026 · 12:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Inter Ibiza

Mercadal

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.6% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 25.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.3% 2.15 DRAW 29.8% 3.20 AWAY 25.9% 3.67

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Inter Ibiza

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Inter Ibiza Mercadal

Shots 2.0 · On target 0.3 Shots 2.0 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours Mercadal, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Inter Ibiza Mercadal

Shots allowed 2.0 · On target allowed 1.8 Shots allowed 3.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Inter Ibiza has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Inter Ibiza Mercadal

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Inter Ibiza ↓ -0.12 (-5.3%)

Mercadal ↑ +0.76 (+26.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.