ASD Varesina vs Pistoiese

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.1 pp

ASD Varesina

Pistoiese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 14.8% DRAW 22.0% AWAY 63.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.4% 5.34 DRAW 23.5% 3.95 AWAY 59.1% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Pistoiese clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.2% win probability, compared with 59.1% implied by the market. The 4.1 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Pistoiese has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

ASD Varesina Pistoiese

Shots 13.0 · On target 4.5 Shots 17.5 · On target 6.5

Recent attacking output favours Pistoiese, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ASD Varesina Pistoiese

Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Pistoiese has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ASD Varesina Pistoiese

The combined recent performance profile favours Pistoiese.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

ASD Varesina ↓ -0.05 (-0.9%)

Pistoiese ↑ +0.01 (+0.6%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.