Pontedera vs Citta di Varese

20 Sep 2026 · 15:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Pontedera

Citta di Varese

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 26.1% DRAW 29.5% AWAY 44.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 26.6% 3.65 DRAW 29.4% 3.30 AWAY 44.1% 2.20

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Citta di Varese has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Pontedera Citta di Varese

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8 Shots 7.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Pontedera Citta di Varese

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Citta di Varese has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Pontedera Citta di Varese

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

Pontedera ↑ +0.05 (+1.4%)

Citta di Varese ↑ +0.40 (+22.2%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.